Geneva, May 28 (EFE).- There is a 70 percent chance that during the five-year period 2025-2029, average global temperatures will exceed a 1.5-degrees Celsius rise compared to pre-industrial levels, the limit set by the Paris Agreement to avoid even more catastrophic effects of climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned Wednesday.
In a new report, the United Nations agency also said that there is an 86 percent chance that the 1.5-degree rise (1.5 degrees Fahrenheit) will be exceeded in at least one of those five years, after having done so in 2024 for the first time in 175 years of record keeping.
In addition, there is an 80 percent chance that at least one of those five years will be the hottest on record, a record currently held by 2024, which was previously held by 2023.
In 2024, the average global temperature was 1.55 degrees above the pre-industrial era average, making it the first full year in which the risk threshold of 1.5 degrees was exceeded. In 2023 the average rise was 1.48 degrees.
The report said that between 2025 and 2029, the average temperature rise will range between 1.2-1.9 degrees, the latter figure approaching another even higher risk threshold in the Paris Agreement.
The agreement signed in Paris in 2015 demanded keeping the average global temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) but also called for States to limit the rise to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
Experts warn that as global warming increases, the frequency of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, torrential rain and flooding increases, in addition to accelerating the melting of the poles and glaciers.
The report predicts that over the next five years, temperatures in the Arctic, one of the areas most affected by global warming, will be three and a half times higher than the global average, with an average temperature 2.4 degrees above that of the past 30 years.
The WMO also predicts wetter conditions than the average of previous decades in regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Siberia and Alaska, while drier weather is expected in the Amazon rainforest.
In the report, prepared with the help of the British Meteorological Office, Barrett also said “continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.”
Looking further ahead, the report predicts that the average temperature increase over the 20 years between 2015 and 2034 will be 1.44 degrees. EFE
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